{"id":2288,"date":"2026-06-07T06:01:33","date_gmt":"2026-06-07T13:01:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/07\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\/"},"modified":"2026-06-07T06:01:33","modified_gmt":"2026-06-07T13:01:33","slug":"michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/07\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Smolens: Jim Desmond\u2019s challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jim Desmond is about to step onto the political center stage, where the spotlight will be bright and hot.<\/p>\n

Read more UC San Diego betting big bucks new center for students and alumni will be a hit<\/a><\/p>\n

Desmond, a Republican county supervisor, essentially has been waiting in the wings, keeping a comparatively low profile for months as the sure-thing Republican nominee in the pivotal 48th Congressional District, while Democrats slugged it out in a contentious primary.<\/p>\n

In November, he will take on San Diego City Councilmember Marni Von Wilpert, who won going away in what had been thought to be a close Democratic contest.<\/p>\n

Desmond has some distinct advantages. He didn\u2019t have to deplete his resources and is sitting on a pile of cash. He\u2019s been an elected official \u2014 San Marcos council member and mayor, and now a supervisor \u2014 for years in an area that overlaps with the 48th district. Von Wilpert\u2019s district does not.<\/p>\n

He also has an image as a moderate \u2014 one that has been and will be disputed \u2014 and a low-key demeanor. That contrasts sharply with who had been expected to be the Republican candidate, Rep. Darrell Issa, an aggressive, nationally-known partisan warrior over two decades in Congress.<\/p>\n

When Issa decided not to run in the newly reconfigured and now slightly Democratic district, analysts in Washington shifted the race from a toss-up to leaning Democratic. Still, given the lightning rod the Trump-loving Issa had become for Democrats, it seemed they were itching to run against him.<\/p>\n

In von Wilpert, Desmond has an opponent who has won in a purplish suburban district previously held by a Republican and is often considered among the most moderate of San Diego\u2019s nine Democratic City Council members, an image that also will be challenged.<\/p>\n

Desmond had considerably better name identification than von Wilpert in a good portion of the district. But von Wilpert certainly made up at least some of that ground with a major campaign, waged from the district\u2019s East County communities up to its tip at Palm Springs.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

But all other advantages and disadvantages take a back seat to this one: the Trump effect.<\/p>\n

Desmond did not have deep ties to President Donald Trump or consistently praise him like Issa has, seemingly a plus for a Republican in any California purple or blue district. Then Trump endorsed Desmond. That triggered an obvious question. Did that help or hurt Desmond?<\/p>\n

Issa essentially handed off the GOP nomination to Desmond hours before the March filing deadline. The Trump endorsement only seemed to energize Democrats and give pause to many independents, who, nationwide polls show, are increasingly sour on the president.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s also a signal that could encourage more Trump voters to turn out in a midterm election, as well as encourage campaign contributors.<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

\u201cTrump is a double-edged sword,\u201d said Barry Jantz, longtime East County political analyst and former La Mesa City Council member and health care district CEO.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat motivates Republicans,\u201d he said of the endorsement. As for swing voters, he added, \u201cThat\u2019s another story.\u201d<\/p>\n

UC San Diego political scientist Thad Kousser has long said the redistricting enabled by last year\u2019s voter-approved Proposition 50 gave Democrats a chance to win in five Republican-held districts, but nothing was guaranteed. That goes for the 48th.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, he said Desmond is facing tough \u201cnational headwinds.\u201d Kousser said Desmond needs to be \u201cwalking a tightrope.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s still connected to the most popular voice in Republican politics today, Donald Trump,\u201d Kousser said.<\/p>\n

Read more Grossmont school district\u2019s contracting, student services face new scrutiny<\/a><\/p>\n

But he said Desmond can\u2019t be \u201creminding Democrats and independents of his link to the most toxic brand in California today. That\u2019s also Donald Trump. And that\u2019s really hard.\u201d<\/p>\n

Apart from major scandals and unforeseen political-shaping events, campaigns are often determined by who wins the messaging battle. The focus here could be more on Desmond.<\/p>\n

This could come down to whether he\u2019s seen by voters more as \u201cMAGA Republican\u201d Jim Desmond, as the von Wilpert campaign calls him, or \u201cCommon Sense\u201d Jim Desmond, to use a favorite phrase of his campaign.<\/p>\n

Desmond will no doubt focus on his support for popular policies, such as expanded mental health and homelessness programs, along with his calls for fiscal prudence.<\/p>\n

But he will have to navigate constantly being tied to Trump and called on to defend the president\u2019s unpopular policies, particularly cuts to medical coverage, food stamps and other programs that have negatively impacted the county he helps govern.<\/p>\n

His support for Trump\u2019s war against Iran and dismissing what he said would be a temporary spike in oil prices as \u201cno pain, no gain\u201d led to plenty of criticism, certainly among political opponents.<\/p>\n

In turn, von Wilpert will highlight her positives, such as public safety efforts, particularly to reduce gun violence, and her defense of reproductive rights.<\/p>\n

But polls have long showed the public believes the city of San Diego is on the \u201cwrong track,\u201d with a recent survey commissioned by the Municipal Employees Association showing it has gotten worse, according to the Voice of San Diego.<\/p>\n

She will be targeted for, among other things, votes for parking fees in Balboa Park and putting\u00a0 Measure A on the ballot, the second-homes tax rejected by voters on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

After the election, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee called her \u201ca tax-raising career politician.\u201d (Note: Desmond has been in office longer.)<\/p>\n

\u201cDo East County and North County folks think the city of San Diego is doing a good job?\u201d Jantz asked. \u201cRepublicans will be hanging bad policies by the city of San Diego around Marni\u2019s neck.\u201d<\/p>\n

Getting the message out, of course, depends on money. It would appear both candidates, and their independent-expenditure surrogates, should have plenty. The fate of the House majority may be determined by a handful of districts, and the 48th is high among them. The race has taken on national importance, and Republican and Democratic parties seem all in, though von Wilpert has more to do to rebuild her campaign stockpile.<\/p>\n

Kousser said it\u2019s worth keeping an eye on how the \u201csmart money\u201d treats Desmond, depending on the final vote margin. As of election night, the Republican total in the district was near 49 percent (Desmond had more than 41 percent then). But that started slipping as more votes were counted as of late Friday.<\/p>\n

If the final tally stays close to 50 percent or better, the money would seem to be there. But if it sinks substantially below 50 percent, some would-be contributors might have doubts, Kousser said.<\/p>\n

It may take a while for the campaign themes to fully emerge. But there will be no doubt about this: The other side will not be depicting Desmond and von Wilpert as the reasonable, moderate elected officials they present themselves to be.<\/p>\n

Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-San Diego, to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems like you have an issue admitting facts. You can\u2019t say that the president lost the 2020 election\u2026You won\u2019t admit that President Trump is losing this reckless war of choice\u2026You couldn\u2019t admit that the shoes the president bought you were too big.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more US military shot down Iranian drones launched toward Strait of Hormuz<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The GOP nominee in a pivotal congressional race faces tough headwinds but has some advantages.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2287,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nMichael Smolens: Jim Desmond\u2019s challenge - Los Angeles Moving Insider<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/07\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Michael Smolens: Jim Desmond\u2019s challenge - Los Angeles Moving Insider\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The GOP nominee in a pivotal congressional race faces tough headwinds but has some advantages.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/07\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Los Angeles Moving Insider\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-07T13:01:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/07\\\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/07\\\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b7f420a994f0482cf24e152087599bfb\"},\"headline\":\"Michael Smolens: Jim Desmond\u2019s challenge\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-07T13:01:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/07\\\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1219,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/07\\\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/bf6046c2cf336226aa85b88a87be6126.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"Politics\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/07\\\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/07\\\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/losangelesmovinginsider.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/07\\\/michael-smolens-jim-desmonds-challenge\\\/\",\"name\":\"Michael Smolens: Jim Desmond\u2019s challenge - 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