In the San Diego area’s most competitive congressional race, the November general election appears set.
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Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert were leading other primary candidates by wide margins based on early results, prompting both campaigns to quickly pivot to what could be a bruising fall.
By Wednesday, both candidates looked to define the race as a referendum on concerns over the cost of living.
In a Tuesday night statement, Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor, called his strong showing a win for residents concerned with high taxes and what they mean for affordability.
“This win belongs to the families who are sick of being taxed out of their own neighborhoods,” he said. “Tonight they sent a message to every tax-happy, out-of-touch politician who forgot who they work for.”
On Wednesday morning, von Wilpert, a San Diego City Council member, characterized the race as the most important in the region’s history.
“I’m running to fight for the America we believe in,” she said in a statement. “Jim Desmond has proven he will be just another rubber stamp for an extreme MAGA agenda that raises costs, attacks fundamental freedoms and leaves working families behind.”
The 48th Congressional District is one of five California seats Democrats hope to flip under redrawn political maps backed by voters last fall. With the maps redrawn, Democrats hold a 4-point registration advantage.
One big question now is how much money the national GOP is willing to spend to back up Desmond, especially given that Democratic advantage, said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego.
On top of that, many California independent voters have negative views of President Donald Trump, whom Desmond supports.
“He can’t deny it or move away from it,” Kousser said of Desmond’s support for the president. “He would have to focus on what he’s done locally, and what his practical approaches are to the cost of living and the other challenges in this district. But it’s a hard path for any Republican in a purple district.”
Desmond did not return a request for comment on Wednesday. In a previous interview, the Republican acknowledged his party faces a tough midterm but said he planned to lean on his record as a longtime elected official in North County — as a supervisor since 2018 and as San Marcos mayor before that.
“I think government should be there to provide opportunities for people to succeed themselves, and I did that as mayor and I’m trying to do that as a county supervisor,” Desmond said.
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Christian Martinez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Desmond would get “any help necessary” from the national party.
Anna Elsasser, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the party was “all in” with financially backing von Wilpert.
“CA-48 is central to Democrats’ path to take back the House Majority and serve as a check on Republicans’ disastrous, cost-raising agenda,” Elsasser said.
Even with a built-in advantage, there are factors that could complicate Democrats’ path to victory in the race, said Carl Luna, a political science professor at Mesa College.
Should gas prices come down or public opinion of Trump improve, that could hurt von Wilpert, Luna said. So could any unexpected scandal or gaffe.
“Her problem with Jim Desmond is he’s better known in the district. Republicans are behind him, and he’s generally recognized as a nice fellow,” Luna said. “But Desmond’s still going to have an uphill battle.”
Von Wilpert also isn’t an elected official in the district — though her northern San Diego council district does abut it. Still, she emerged with a strong lead from a primary with nine Democrats on the ballot.
Organized labor and other outside groups swept into the primary to help her, spending about $6.1 million to boost her and oppose her main Democratic rival, Ammar Campa-Najjar. A PAC backed by California’s largest public employees union spent about $477,000; the rest came from national Democratic PACs and other groups.
Tuesday night handed Campa-Najjar his fourth defeat in a near decade-long quest for public office, including two previous congressional bids and one for mayor of Chula Vista. After a weak showing in early returns, he posted a statement on social media saying his political career was “permanently over.”
He also criticized the outside groups that spent millions in the race, including a pro-Israel group, Democratic Majority for Israel, that spent about $2 million on ads opposing him. He said outside groups “advocating for a foreign government” had “upended our consistently leading campaign.”
On Wednesday, Democratic Majority for Israel took partial credit for von Wilpert’s win, touting that its attack ads against Campa-Najjar got 8 million views.
Other outside groups did come in to support Campa-Najjar. A committee called Serving CA spent about $935,000 backing his campaign; its biggest funder was Qualcomm founder and San Diego philanthropist Irwin Jacobs, the grandfather of Rep. Sara Jacobs, Campa-Najjar’s longtime girlfriend.
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