Early results from the primary election that ended Tuesday show notable voter backlash against San Diego City Hall, with outsiders leading in three out of four council races as some well-funded insiders struggled and incumbents fared worse than usual.
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Candidates, community leaders and political scientists said the results reflect voter frustration that likely transcends nationwide concerns about affordability to touch on some issues unique to San Diego.
Those issues are the city’s seemingly unsolvable budget crisis, trash pickup fees,paid parking in Balboa Park and allowing large ADU developments in neighborhoods of single-family homes.
“These results amplify a general trend against incumbents,” said local political science professor Carl Luna. “You screw up the trash fees and the Balboa Park fees, and you have no real record to run on as a City Council.”
That may be partly why outsiders are leading in three out of the four races on the ballot: Richard Bailey in District 2, Martha Abraham in District 4 and Antonio Martinez in District 8.
Primaries don’t decide who wins council seats in San Diego — runoffs between the top two candidates are required in all races.
But while no seats were clinched, voters still sent a loud message, said Margaret Virissimo, founder of an anti-City Hall group called San Diego United Communities.
“I feel like the results are a critical step toward change,” said Virissimo, whose group endorsed Bailey and Abraham. “Voters are starting to listen to activists like me and groups like San Diego United Communities.”
Bailey, a former Coronado mayor who’s new to San Diego politics, leads two candidates who have worked for the city — Nicole Crosby, a staff lawyer under City Attorney Heather Ferbert, and Josh Coyne, a former council staffer.
Martinez, a San Ysidro schools trustee and neighborhood volunteer, leads two council insiders: Gerardo Ramirez, who is chief of staff to Councilmember Vivian Moreno, and Venus Molina, chief of staff to Councilmember Jennifer Campbell.
Abraham, a nurse with no political experience, on Wednesday held a narrow 249-vote lead over incumbent Henry Foster, who appeared set to advance with her to a November runoff. But it’s arguably more notable than the larger leads posted by Bailey and Martinez, because only two incumbents have lost San Diego council re-election bids since 1992.
And even the fourth race, a battle in District 6 where incumbent Kent Lee was leading challenger Mark Powell by nearly 2,000 votes, could offer evidence of backlash against City Hall.
With many thousands of ballots left to count, Lee was commanding a slimmer majority of votes in his race than other incumbents ultimately won in other recent council primaries.
Lee agreed Wednesday that many city voters are frustrated.
“They want real action, and they want solutions,” he said.
But he said many of the frustrated voters he’s met on the campaign trail have broader concerns than just trash fees or parking fees at Balboa Park.
“There are so many other issues, like the budget and the cost of housing,” said Lee, noting that some residents say they’d be willing to pay more if it meant receiving better city services.
Lee also warned about drawing strong conclusions from early returns, estimating that only about 40% of ballots cast had been counted through Wednesday.
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Crosby’s success in District 2 — she held a huge lead over Coyne for the second slot in the runoff — arguably contradicts the backlash trend. She’s a deputy city attorney and she was endorsed by the county Democratic Party for a seat on an all-Democrat City Council.
It’s possible her role as a prosecutor and litigator — with no direct connection to the council or Mayor Todd Gloria — made a difference to voters frustrated with alleged mismanagement by bureaucrats.
For November, it’s still likely a concern for Crosby that Bailey is leading the race and has gotten nearly 39% of the vote in a seven-candidate field.
Campbell, the outgoing District 2 council member, took first place in the 2022 primary with only 30%. The lone Republican candidate in that race, Linda Lukacs, got 25% in the primary — far short of Bailey’s support.
Crosby is likely to benefit from Democrats’ registration advantage in the district — they outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1.
Luna and Lee both believe frustration will die down by November about trash fees and Balboa Park parking, which the City Council retreated on by agreeing to a complex deal last month.
Less frustration over those issues could tone down the backlash and soften voter frustration, said Luna, director of the University of San Diego’s Institute for Civil Civic Engagement.
Luna said Crosby must also alert voters to Bailey’s history as a longtime right-wing Republican.
“He’s a chameleon, and she needs to work on exposing that,” Luna said. “He was playing a MAGA Republican in Coronado, and now he’s an independent.”
Virissimo, the community leader, said her group endorsed Abraham because of her strong support in the communities she’s running to represent, particularly Emerald Hills and Encanto, and because she’s focused on exposing questionable connections between developers and City Hall.
Her group endorsed an unsuccessful write-in candidate in District 8, but Virissimo said Martinez’s outsider credentials make him potentially appealing. She said her group plans to meet with him soon to see what common ground they share.
Another possible factor in Martinez’s lead other than City Hall backlash could be his relatively strong name recognition in District 8. He’s a longtime schools trustee and ran unsuccessfully for City Council in 2018 and 2022. The other three candidates in the race have never run for office before.
Virissimo’s group also endorsed Powell, who is in second place in early voting in the two-candidate battle. Powell will have five more months to criticize Lee and City Hall leading up to the November runoff.
Luna said a key factor in whether local backlash matters as much in November as June will be national politics — particularly how much excitement Democrats can generate for their quest to retake the U.S. Congress. One San Diego County congressional race featuring a San Diego City Council incumbent is key to that push.
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“The national backlash may trump the local backlash,” Luna said.
