The primary election night glow for San Diego Republicans seems long ago.
Early returns showed their favored candidates for Congress and San Diego City Council leading their respective races, vaulting them into the November election.
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But the ongoing tally of late-arriving ballots show their positions have steadily weakened, even as they remain in the first spot of their top-two primaries as of Friday.
At stake is whether the local GOP will retain its lone seat in Congress and crack the Democratic hegemony on the San Diego City Council in November. Both prospects are increasingly questionable.
There’s more in play. A Democrat is threatening to flip a Republican state Senate seat, currently held by the termed-out Senate minority leader. A looming battle for an open county supervisor seat, also now held by a Republican, will determine whether Democrats gain a supermajority on the board.
The marquee race in the county is the matchup in the 48th Congressional District between Marni von Wilpert, a Democratic San Diego City Council member, and Jim Desmond, Republican county supervisor. It’s also an election that could determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.
The 48th is being vacated by longtime GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, who apparently found the redrawn district with its more Democratic electorate inhospitable.
Initial returns from Election Day on June 2 showed Desmond topped 41 percent of the vote, but more importantly, the combined vote with the other Republican candidate was nearly 49 percent.
As of Thursday, the GOP candidates’ total was 45.8 percent (Desmond was down to 38.9 percent). While von Wilpert’s total was only 20.9 percent, the total for all Democratic candidates came to 53.3 percent. The one “no party preference” (NPP) candidate received 0.9 percent.
The Democratic gap is expanding toward four times the initial count. The conventional wisdom for November is that Democrats overall will be more energized and will have a stronger turnout.
None of this can be comforting for Desmond. He’d likely have to gain even more Democratic crossover votes. As a supervisor with a moderate GOP image, Desmond may have had greater potential to do that.
But his endorsement by President Donald Trump — a strategically questionable move in a hotly contested purple district — makes that far less likely. Desmond will be pressed by von Wilpert and her surrogates to answer for everything Trump: his unpopular agenda of cuts to health care and other programs, erratic and unsuccessful forays in foreign affairs, and actions to contest Democratic votes across the country, to name a few.
Things can change. Cost-of-living pressures, particularly high gas prices, could ease, but it would folly to suggest Trump’s lowly image in California will improve much by November under any circumstance.
Democrats will try to make Trump the issue for all Republican candidates in federal, state and many local elections.
In San Diego’s City Council District 2, former Coronado Mayor Richard Bailey was in a weaker position than Desmond from the start. He had a first-place lead, but his relatively low vote totals have further diminished.
As of Thursday, he had 34.8 percent of the vote, barely one point ahead of Nichole Crosby, a Democratic deputy city attorney, whom Bailey will face on the November ballot. Though the election is technically nonpartisan, party politics play a pivotal role. The bulk of the other candidates are Democrats or Democratic-leaning. Their voters would be expected to consolidate behind Crosby.
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Bailey for years has worked to raise his profile and has become a recognized name beyond tiny Coronado. In this campaign, he has raised substantial sums of money and is benefiting from independent expenditures from business and Republican-leaning groups and individuals.
But his recent move to Point Loma and shift of his voter registration from Republican to NPP in February may not create enough of a new identity to attract the voters he needs in the heavily Democratic district. Democratic-backed mailers criticized his Republican background in the primary.
Crosby, backed by organized labor and the Democratic Party, is hitting those points. Her campaign is painting Bailey as a carpetbagging interloper and “a MAGA Republican candidate who changed his party affiliation to trick voters.”
Democrats have had a 9-0 majority on the City Council since 2022.
Further, while it may have been of interest mostly to political insiders, Bailey’s attendance at the GOP election night party at the US Grant Hotel didn’t help burnish his new status as a political independent.
Bailey also has to retool his campaign, which was largely built on opposition to paid parking in Balboa Park and new trash collection fees. The city’s recent agreement to end the former and roll back the latter took those off the table.
Here’s a quick look at other key races:
In the 40th State Senate District, former San Diego City Attorney Mara Elliott, a Democrat, had 47.9 percent of the vote. Second-place finisher Kristie Bruce-Lane, a previous Republican Assembly candidate, gained 27.7 percent, just edging out fellow Republican Ed Musgrove, the only other candidate on the primary ballot.
Whether all Musgrove voters go to the more conservative Bruce-Lane is an open question in the purple district, in part because of how bitter their competition was.
Notably, it was a proxy fight for control of the local Republican Party between Assemblymember Carl DeMaio (backing Bruce-Lane) and Musgrove supporters Issa and state Senate Majority Leader Brian Jones, who represents the district.
A similar dynamic is taking place in the election to replace Desmond in the 5th Supervisorial District. San Marcos Mayor Rebecca Jones, backed by DeMaio, bested Vista Mayor John Franklin in another Republican battle that left hard feelings. Still, the combined total votes for the two Republicans were more than 56 percent.
That makes it a tough challenge for Kyle Krahel, former chair of the local Democratic Party, to flip the seat, which would give Democrats a 4-1 majority on the Board of Supervisors.
In the 74th Assembly District, incumbent Republican Laurie Davies’ slim lead is now 4.6 percent. Democrat Sergio Farias, the only other candidate on the primary ballot, could still be a threat in November in the district that straddles the San Diego-Orange County line.
After the 2024 election, there was much discussion about Republicans making inroads in heavily Democratic California and San Diego County. Holding that ground won’t be easy this time around.
Rep. Jack Kimble (@RepJackKimble), fictitious internet congressman from California’s “54th District.” (There are only 52.)
“I’m really tired of how much credit Chicago gets for dying the Chicago River green for Saint Patrick’s Day, when President Trump has done the same thing for America’s 250th Anniversary with zero fanfare.”
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