A primary election season that’s been largely dominated by a crowded race for California governor comes to a close Tuesday — but several local races and ballot measures could also have key consequences for San Diego County.
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Local voters have been confronted with a range of decisions — including in a high-stakes congressional race in a newly redrawn district, following the passage of Proposition 50 last year, in which voters overwhelmingly voted to redistrict the state to benefit Democrats.
Other races include a seat on the County Board of Supervisors and several city council districts throughout the county — along with a city of San Diego ballot measure that could tax homeowners with a vacant second home.
By Monday afternoon, San Diego County voters had already returned more than 450,000 mailed ballots, according to county election officials, and more than 8,300 people had voted in person — making for roughly 22% voter turnout so far.
Officials anticipate total election turnout to be between 35% and 40% — similar to the 2024 presidential primary and the 2022 gubernatorial primary, said Antonia Hutzell, a spokesperson for the Registrar of Voters.
Primary elections typically don’t bring as many voters to the polls as general elections. But this year, many California Democrats have reported waiting to cast their ballots to see which candidate would emerge as the frontrunner with the best chance of winning.
Recent polls have shown a three-way competition between Democrat Xavier Becerra, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer for the top two spots to advance to November. That follows a tumultuous campaign in a crowded race where one Democratic frontrunner dropped out amid sexual misconduct allegations, and where Democrats for a time worried they’d be shut out in November.
County election officials don’t actively track and report the number of ballots returned based on party, Hutzell said. But statewide, 19% of California Democrats have cast their ballots so far, compared with 23% of Republicans. In total, 18% of ballots had been returned as of Monday, according to data from the firm Political Data.
Hutzell said that many San Diego County voters consistently wait until the final day to return their ballot, and added that participation is, at this point, tracking slightly higher in this election compared to the last two primaries.
But the prospect of voters hanging onto their ballots for longer worries Will Rodriguez-Kennedy, the chair of the San Diego County Democratic Party.
“It’s a concerning trend,” he said. “When people hang onto their ballots, it increases the opportunity for something to go wrong.”
But as votes have continued to come in, Rodriguez-Kennedy says he’s felt a “shift in the mood” of the electorate and is more confident that a Democrat will advance in the governor’s race — if not two.
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Locally, voters have several races to keep their eyes on, including five open seats for congressional districts.
One of the most contentious is the race for the 48th Congressional District, in North County.
Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, with the endorsement of President Donald Trump and a long record in local elected office, is widely expected to head to a November runoff.
But with nine Democratic candidates on the ballot, it’s unclear who else might lock up enough votes for the general election. Leading hopefuls — including San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and three-time congressional candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar — were making a last-minute push to turn out supporters.
The newly redrawn district could play a crucial role in determining which party controls the House of Representatives, making it a critical election for both parties.
Desmond’s run for Congress leaves his longtime District 5 seat up for grabs on the majority-Democratic County Board of Supervisors. The race could be more competitive for Democrats than it was eight years ago when Desmond took office.
In the city of San Diego, four city council seats are up for election, in Districts 2, 4, 6 and 8. Two of those are crowded and competitive open races with no incumbent running.
And on Tuesday, San Diego voters will decide on Measure A — a ballot initiative that would tax second homes without a full-time resident up to $10,000 a year, with revenue from the tax set to go toward the city’s general fund. Proponents argue the measure, known formally as the non-primary homes tax, could return as many as 5,100 homes to the rental and for-sale markets, mostly in downtown and La Jolla.
Another measure will be decided by voters in Oceanside, Carlsbad and Vista, and if passed would create a partnership between Tri-City Healthcare and Sharp HealthCare. Under Measure H, Tri-City’s assets would be leased to Sharp HealthCare for 30 years, a move that would invest $100 million into the Tri-City facility.
Farther east, in a special election in Poway, two candidates — Anita Edmondson and Vanessa Springett — aim to take former Councilmember Tony Blain’s District 2 seat. Blain resigned last fall, after being accused of vote trading and more.
And in Chula Vista, three candidates are fighting to lead San Diego County’s second-largest city. Incumbent Mayor John McCann, a Republican, is being challenged by two candidates from Democratic backgrounds. With council races also on the ballot, the election results could reshape Chula Vista’s City Hall.
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