Jim Desmond is about to step onto the political center stage, where the spotlight will be bright and hot.
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Desmond, a Republican county supervisor, essentially has been waiting in the wings, keeping a comparatively low profile for months as the sure-thing Republican nominee in the pivotal 48th Congressional District, while Democrats slugged it out in a contentious primary.
In November, he will take on San Diego City Councilmember Marni Von Wilpert, who won going away in what had been thought to be a close Democratic contest.
Desmond has some distinct advantages. He didn’t have to deplete his resources and is sitting on a pile of cash. He’s been an elected official — San Marcos council member and mayor, and now a supervisor — for years in an area that overlaps with the 48th district. Von Wilpert’s district does not.
He also has an image as a moderate — one that has been and will be disputed — and a low-key demeanor. That contrasts sharply with who had been expected to be the Republican candidate, Rep. Darrell Issa, an aggressive, nationally-known partisan warrior over two decades in Congress.
When Issa decided not to run in the newly reconfigured and now slightly Democratic district, analysts in Washington shifted the race from a toss-up to leaning Democratic. Still, given the lightning rod the Trump-loving Issa had become for Democrats, it seemed they were itching to run against him.
In von Wilpert, Desmond has an opponent who has won in a purplish suburban district previously held by a Republican and is often considered among the most moderate of San Diego’s nine Democratic City Council members, an image that also will be challenged.
Desmond had considerably better name identification than von Wilpert in a good portion of the district. But von Wilpert certainly made up at least some of that ground with a major campaign, waged from the district’s East County communities up to its tip at Palm Springs.
But all other advantages and disadvantages take a back seat to this one: the Trump effect.
Desmond did not have deep ties to President Donald Trump or consistently praise him like Issa has, seemingly a plus for a Republican in any California purple or blue district. Then Trump endorsed Desmond. That triggered an obvious question. Did that help or hurt Desmond?
Issa essentially handed off the GOP nomination to Desmond hours before the March filing deadline. The Trump endorsement only seemed to energize Democrats and give pause to many independents, who, nationwide polls show, are increasingly sour on the president.
But it’s also a signal that could encourage more Trump voters to turn out in a midterm election, as well as encourage campaign contributors.
“Trump is a double-edged sword,” said Barry Jantz, longtime East County political analyst and former La Mesa City Council member and health care district CEO.
“That motivates Republicans,” he said of the endorsement. As for swing voters, he added, “That’s another story.”
UC San Diego political scientist Thad Kousser has long said the redistricting enabled by last year’s voter-approved Proposition 50 gave Democrats a chance to win in five Republican-held districts, but nothing was guaranteed. That goes for the 48th.
Nevertheless, he said Desmond is facing tough “national headwinds.” Kousser said Desmond needs to be “walking a tightrope.”
“He’s still connected to the most popular voice in Republican politics today, Donald Trump,” Kousser said.
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But he said Desmond can’t be “reminding Democrats and independents of his link to the most toxic brand in California today. That’s also Donald Trump. And that’s really hard.”
Apart from major scandals and unforeseen political-shaping events, campaigns are often determined by who wins the messaging battle. The focus here could be more on Desmond.
This could come down to whether he’s seen by voters more as “MAGA Republican” Jim Desmond, as the von Wilpert campaign calls him, or “Common Sense” Jim Desmond, to use a favorite phrase of his campaign.
Desmond will no doubt focus on his support for popular policies, such as expanded mental health and homelessness programs, along with his calls for fiscal prudence.
But he will have to navigate constantly being tied to Trump and called on to defend the president’s unpopular policies, particularly cuts to medical coverage, food stamps and other programs that have negatively impacted the county he helps govern.
His support for Trump’s war against Iran and dismissing what he said would be a temporary spike in oil prices as “no pain, no gain” led to plenty of criticism, certainly among political opponents.
In turn, von Wilpert will highlight her positives, such as public safety efforts, particularly to reduce gun violence, and her defense of reproductive rights.
But polls have long showed the public believes the city of San Diego is on the “wrong track,” with a recent survey commissioned by the Municipal Employees Association showing it has gotten worse, according to the Voice of San Diego.
She will be targeted for, among other things, votes for parking fees in Balboa Park and putting Measure A on the ballot, the second-homes tax rejected by voters on Tuesday.
After the election, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee called her “a tax-raising career politician.” (Note: Desmond has been in office longer.)
“Do East County and North County folks think the city of San Diego is doing a good job?” Jantz asked. “Republicans will be hanging bad policies by the city of San Diego around Marni’s neck.”
Getting the message out, of course, depends on money. It would appear both candidates, and their independent-expenditure surrogates, should have plenty. The fate of the House majority may be determined by a handful of districts, and the 48th is high among them. The race has taken on national importance, and Republican and Democratic parties seem all in, though von Wilpert has more to do to rebuild her campaign stockpile.
Kousser said it’s worth keeping an eye on how the “smart money” treats Desmond, depending on the final vote margin. As of election night, the Republican total in the district was near 49 percent (Desmond had more than 41 percent then). But that started slipping as more votes were counted as of late Friday.
If the final tally stays close to 50 percent or better, the money would seem to be there. But if it sinks substantially below 50 percent, some would-be contributors might have doubts, Kousser said.
It may take a while for the campaign themes to fully emerge. But there will be no doubt about this: The other side will not be depicting Desmond and von Wilpert as the reasonable, moderate elected officials they present themselves to be.
Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-San Diego, to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
“It seems like you have an issue admitting facts. You can’t say that the president lost the 2020 election…You won’t admit that President Trump is losing this reckless war of choice…You couldn’t admit that the shoes the president bought you were too big.”
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