Democrat Marni Von Wilpert is narrowly leading Republican Jim Desmond in the hotly contested race for an open congressional seat in North County, a new poll conducted for The San Diego Union-Tribune finds.
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But her lead amounts to a statistical tie, and the candidates’ close race appears to buck a trend of broad disapproval of President Donald Trump, who is 16 percentage points underwater with voters in the district, according to the poll.
The results highlight what’s at stake in the 48th Congressional District, an open seat made newly competitive after California voters let Democrats redraw it and incumbent Rep. Darrell Issa opted not to run for re-election.
With Democrats seeking to retake the House of Representatives in the fall midterm election, the updated 48th — one of five seats California Democrats hope to flip with redistricting — could be key to determining control of Congress.
Of the likely voters polled, 45% said they would vote for von Wilpert, a San Diego City Council member from Scripps Ranch, while 42% said they would vote for Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor from Oceanside. Another 13% were undecided.
The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Union-Tribune and Channel 10 News from Aug. 27 to Sept. 1, has a credibility interval of roughly 5 percentage points.
Still, von Wilpert’s lead of 3 percentage points is narrower than the 4-point registration advantage Democrats now enjoy in the redrawn district.
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And the close race between the two experienced local politicians suggests that Desmond has maintained support in spite of the unpopularity of Trump, who has endorsed him and has been seen as a drag on Republicans’ chances elsewhere in the midterms.
Just 39% of likely voters in the 48th District say they approve of the job Trump is doing, while 55% disapprove. The current Republican-controlled Congress is even deeper underwater — 65% disapprove, and just 19% approve.
And two of the chief priorities of Trump’s presidency — the war in Iran and his immigration crackdown — also see broad disapproval from district voters, with 53% disapproving of the job Immigration and Customs Enforcement is doing and 61% disapproving of the war in Iran. Majorities of voters said both ICE and the war are making Americans less safe.
Small minorities of voters, however, cite those as the biggest issue facing Congress when asked to choose from a list of issues. While just 6% say either foreign policy or immigration is the top issue, more than a quarter point to the economy, followed by just under a quarter who cite threats to democracy.
Von Wilpert and Desmond became rivals in the November general election after advancing from a crowded 10-candidate June primary. Both are sitting local elected officials facing term limits, and both jumped into the 48th race after initially filing to run for office in other districts.
With redistricting, the seat they’re seeking to represent shifted north to pick up more of Riverside County — in particular the Democratic stronghold of Palm Springs.
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