In North County, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans.
But you wouldn’t know it from the results of a recent primary.
Democrats’ chances of claiming their first-ever supermajority on the Board of Supervisors have dimmed after Republicans won a majority of votes for a seat representing North County.
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The seat isn’t a must-win for preserving Democratic control of county government. The party currently holds three of the five seats on the Board of Supervisors. But a fourth seat would give Democrats the ability to pass budget amendments and other items without having to win Republican support.
In the primary, San Marcos Mayor Rebecca Jones, a Republican, won 38.3% of the vote, according to unofficial election results.
Another Republican, Vista Mayor John Franklin, won 18.2%, giving GOP candidates nearly 57% of the vote.
Democrat Kyle Krahel-Frolander won the second-most votes with 22%, sending him and Jones to November’s general election.
The results pose a challenge for Krahel-Frolander and the county Democratic Party.
Democrats have long held a small advantage in the district, which includes larger cities such as Oceanside and Escondido as well as rural areas like Fallbrook, Valley Center and Borrego Springs.
Registered Democrats first outnumbered registered Republicans in 2020, and since, Democrats have a built 4-point registration advantage over Republicans.
Vanishing advantage
But that advantage did not pan out in returns.
Republicans won the vast majority of the district’s precincts, including scores of precincts that have a plurality of Democratic voters.
The county Registrar of Voters doesn’t actively track turnout by party affiliation. According to registration data, the district has about 146,000 registered Democrats. Yet Krahel-Frolander and two other left-leaning candidates only earned 67,000 votes.
Countywide, Democratic candidates earned a much bigger share of their own voters.
In the primary for California governor, Democratic candidates got about 488,000 votes. San Diego County has about 824,000 registered Democrats.
Democrats both acknowledge and dismiss their poor results in the supervisorial primary.
“The campaign was really among the Republicans,” said Will Rodriguez-Kennedy, chair of the county Democratic Party. “Once we get into the general election, everything changes because it’s a Democrat versus a Republican in a year where there’s increased Democratic turnout.”
To be sure, the Republican side of the race was far more competitive.
In the final weeks of the primary, Jones, Franklin and their allies traded sharp attacks while spending considerable amounts of money. By election day, Jones’ campaign had spent about $209,000 and Franklin’s had spent about $618,000, according to campaign finance disclosures.
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio and his influential group Reform California also played a key role in the race by backing Jones over Franklin.
Going into the primary, Krahel-Frolander’s campaign had spent about $93,000. The county party, which endorsed him, also spent about $46,000 supporting his candidacy.
Yet two outsider candidates – Democrat Norma Contreras and independent candidate Sasha Miller – spent a fraction of that and together won a similar percentage of the vote as Krahel-Frolander.
According to disclosures, Contreras’ campaign spent $600 and Miller’s spent $8,000. They collectively won 21% of the vote.
In an interview, Krahel-Frolander conceded that his campaign will have to target a wider share of the electorate to pull off a victory in November.
“We just didn’t reach out wide enough,” Krahel-Frolander said of his primary campaign. “We are going to do that in November. We will not make that mistake.”
An experience gap
Races for supervisor are technically nonpartisan, meaning a candidate’s party affiliation doesn’t appear beside their name on the ballot.
That makes other factors more important, like name recognition, fundraising and political influence.
When it comes to political experience in North County, Jones and Krahel-Frolander have marked differences.
Jones has been an elected official in San Marcos for nearly two decades.
Over her two-terms as mayor and multiple terms on the City Council, she presided over considerable housing development in the community and the emergence of the city as a health care and education hub.
She’s also emerged as a vocal figure on the Board of Directors for the San Diego Association of Governments, or SANDAG.
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There, Jones has advocated for key transit projects on the congestion-plagued state Route 78 and opposed the agency’s controversial mileage tax.
In an interview, Jones said her record, not her political affiliation, explains her performance in the primary.
“When you have someone like me that actually has something to point to, to say this is what I’ve helped build, I think that’s a very tangible thing that people can look at,” Jones said.
“I think my results prove that I do have that appeal to people that want someone to serve them, and I think it’s not political,” she added.
Krahel-Frolander has not held elected office before. He previously served as chair of the county Democratic Party for less than a year. He also used to work as a top staffer for Rep. Mike Levin.
Olga Diaz, a former Democratic member of Escondido’s City Council, said that Krahel-Frolander’s lack of political experience could hurt him against an established elected official like Jones.
“He doesn’t come to this race with that portfolio of accomplishments,” Diaz said. “He’s a smart guy. He’s certainly accomplished a lot, just not in this particular space, whereas Rebecca’s a known-entity.”
Krahel-Frolander has said he sees an advantage in not being a career politician. He’s also looking in part to nationalize the race and make it about the impact of the Trump administration.
“There’s a lot of appetite for an alternative to the MAGA Republicans,” Krahel-Frolander said. “I’d like to see (Jones) speak out about the economic pain that’s being caused throughout this country, especially in San Diego County.”
Jones repeatedly declined to give her stance on the Trump administration or national politics, calling it “irrelevant” and not of importance to voters.
“It’s not that I don’t want to comment on it. It’s just that it’s not germane to my actual job,” she said. “My job is to serve the people. My job is to focus on local things.”
Ryan Keim, a former Republican member of Oceanside’s City Council, commended Jones’ streak of staying out of national politics and focusing on local issues.
In North County, voters are more inclined to cross party lines in local races if a candidate has a record they like, Keim added.
“That’s really going to make it or break it,” Keim said of Jones’ chances in the supervisor race.
Running as outsider
Ashkon Jones, vice president of North County Young Democrats, said Krahel-Frolander can capitalize on an outsider brand in the race by drawing contrasts with the San Marcos mayor. She has a close relationship with local real estate interests, as well as DeMaio, long a controversial and divisive figure in the region’s politics, Jones noted.
“It’s going to be an uphill battle, especially in terms of financial resources,” he said. “But if he’s going to win, he’s not going to be beholden to special interests.”
As Democrats turn to the general election, Krahel-Frolander and the county party hope his chances will be raised by a competitive congressional race which overlaps with the district.
The 48th Congressional District, which includes Escondido and San Marcos, is shaping up into one of the most competitive in the country.
In that race, Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert is facing Republican Jim Desmond, the sitting supervisor for North County who is termed out at the end of this year.
“There is going to be significant Democratic campaigning in that area,” said Rodriguez-Kennedy, chair of the county party. “A contribution for the effort to elect Kyle also helps us take back a critical congressional district which has national importance.”
Spending in the race by organized labor could also help Krahel-Frolander.
But SEIU 221, the largest labor union for county employees, has not yet dedicated resources to supporting his campaign.
Currently, the union is focusing considerable resources on a ballot measure to raise the county sales tax rate by a half-cent in order to bring in hundreds of millions in new revenue for county services and programs.
Asked how the union will support Krahel-Frolander, Crystal Irving, the union’s president, said her organization “will volunteer to talk to our friends and neighbors about the importance of electing him to the Board of Supervisors.”
“SEIU Local 221 members are fighting this November to elect candidates who will push back against the self-serving Trump administration’s cuts that hurt our communities while enriching trillionaires and billionaires,” Irving said.
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