Many themes are emerging in the pivotal congressional race between Jim Desmond and Marni von Wilpert. But there’s one overarching dynamic for now.
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Desmond — a San Diego County supervisor — and the Republican political structure behind him are intensely focused on localizing his campaign.
Von Wilpert — a San Diego City Council member — and the Democratic apparatus supporting her are hammering home national issues, specifically as they pertain to President Donald Trump and several of his unpopular policies.
To be sure, there’s plenty of nuance here. Desmond does talk about select national issues that seemingly have broad appeal, and von Wilpert brings up local matters, such as framing her City Hall record in a positive light.
But both campaigns seem to be shaped by the current political atmosphere in order to play to their candidates’ perceived strengths — and away from potential weaknesses.
The dominant factors in this election season are, of course, Trump and his low approval ratings, the unpopular war with Iran, aggressive immigration enforcement actions, and the failure to tame inflation and reduce gas prices.
Von Wilpert and the Democrats are trying to make the Trump-endorsed Desmond own that record, given he hasn’t indicated any divergence from the president’s agenda.
While Trump’s backing potentially unlocks hundreds of millions of dollars in GOP funding, Desmond and other swing district candidates are trying to keep their distance from the president — a delicate dance given the president’s demand for loyalty and umbrage at Republicans who do not abide.
There is no mention of Trump in Desmond’s campaign material or on his website — even on the endorsements page.
Desmond and the GOP have sought to pin the many and much-criticized problems in San Diego city government on von Wilpert, rather than her positions on national issues, which revolve around Trump.
The GOP campaign arm has further tried to depict von Wilpert as a “woke” politician and criticized her for a fundraiser at a gay establishment that had a mildly risqué menu and overall support for LGBTQ+ rights.
The two candidates are facing off in what is considered one of several top battleground districts in the nation that could determine whether Democrats seize the House majority from Republicans in November and potentially gain leverage to block or alter Trump’s agenda.
The 48th Congressional District had been heavily Republican and represented by longtime GOP stalwart Darrell Issa. Then, Trump started the redistricting war in Texas to gain more GOP seats in the House. Democratic California responded with Proposition 50, a ballot measure overwhelmingly approved late last year that allowed for a special redistricting.
The 48th was redrawn to lose some Republican communities in San Diego’s East County. The new district adds more Democratic voters in inland north San Diego County and southern Riverside County, including Palm Springs.
The old district was carried easily by Trump in 2024. Had the new district existed with its slight Democratic voter registration advantage, Kamala Harris would have narrowly prevailed there by a few percentage points, according to Political Data Inc.
The new political demographics weren’t to Issa’s liking — he’s been an outspoken Trump advocate whom Democrats generally loathe — and he announced he wasn’t running for re-election right before the filing deadline. The move was coordinated with Desmond, who had been running in a neighboring congressional district, assuring him no real GOP primary competition in the 48th.
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The political headwinds are clearly blowing against Desmond and other Republicans running in purple swing districts. But Desmond has represented much of the San Diego portion of the district as a San Marcos council member and mayor, and now as supervisor for more than two decades.
His footprint in the 48th has been an asset, giving him name identification and the ability to remind voters of the grants and other benefits he has won for the region. Recently, he has been a vocal opponent of a controversial local electricity transmission proposal called Golden Pacific Powerlink, which von Wilpert also opposes.
He wasn’t seen as a divisive partisan warrior like Issa, or particularly tied to Trump.
The nonpartisan nature of those offices did not often force Desmond to defend national GOP policies.
That has changed. He has had to answer for Trump’s tariffs, healthcare cuts and over-the-top actions by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). He was an early supporter of the president’s military attack on Iran and justified the resulting higher gas prices by saying “no pain, no gain” — a quip that has come back to haunt him and is featured regularly in Democratic attack ads.
On the national front, Desmond’s campaign says he opposes tax increases and wants to ban members of Congress from trading stocks. He’s talked about making life more affordable, as have von Wilpert and the Democrats, but Trump’s record has made that path more difficult.
Von Wilpert had been pursuing a state Senate seat and also shifted to the redrawn 48th, but she jumped into a highly competitive Democratic primary race.
Von Wilpert’s council district, which had morphed from red to purple, was held by a Republican before she was elected in 2020, but there’s virtually no overlap with the 48th. Like Desmond, she also had to introduce herself to voters in Riverside County, but the contested primary gave her a head start.
In addition to reminding voters about Desmond’s support for Trump and the president’s policies, von Wilpert is leaning into Democratic themes that revolve around Trump’s actions and Desmond’s support for them. Her campaign is not spending much time on his record as county supervisor.
Meanwhile, Republicans and conservative media have focused on dysfunction at San Diego City Hall. The National Republican Campaign Committee recently promoted an article by the right-wing California Globe that talks about San Diego’s crumbling infrastructure, slow pothole repairs, deepening trash tax debacle and even a purported high interest rate on a state loan to build a Miramar composting facility. The piece suggests von Wilpert is responsible for this, or at least that much of it happened on her watch.
In something of a political Rorschach test, the article also criticizes von Wilpert for supporting sanctuary laws that limit local police interaction with federal immigration enforcement efforts and legal action against ICE.
How much any of that will matter to 48th District voters, who don’t live in the city of San Diego, is unclear.
Among other things, von Wilpert points to her votes against the trash tax, water rate increases and her ordinance making San Diego the first California city to ban hard-to-trace “ghost guns.”
Publicly released polls so far have suggested the candidates are in a statistical dead heat, though the surveys were taken before the campaign ads really took off.
In a way, the 48th District race likely will confirm the old saw that “all politics is local” — but that’s because national issues are having a profound impact at home.
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