Despite originating from different ends of the political spectrum, two high-profile statewide ballot measures — one that would tax California’s billionaires, one that would require voters to present ID to vote — are drawing similar levels of support, a new poll finds.
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Statewide, support for the two ballot measures stands at 48%, with 40% of respondents saying they oppose the efforts and another 12% saying they are not sure, according to the SurveyUSA poll conducted for The San Diego Union-Tribune and ABC 10News. The poll has a credibility interval of 4.6 percentage points.
Proposition 40, the billionaire tax, would impose a one-time, 5% levy on the wealth of Californians who are worth more than $1 billion. The measure is being pursued by labor unions and has earned support from progressive figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, but in California, it has split Democrats.
The state Democratic Party has formally backed the measure, but some of its leading figures — like Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra — oppose it, saying it could drive out the state’s wealthiest residents.
As voters weigh the tax, they’re also being asked by Republicans to create new restrictions on how Californians vote.
If passed, Proposition 39 would require voters to present a government-issued ID every time they vote in person. Those voting by mail would have to include the last four digits of that ID or request a proposed voter ID card from the state. San Diego-area Republican Assemblymember Carl DeMaio and his influential conservative advocacy group Reform California are the leading forces behind the measure.
Among nearly 750 likely voters polled this month, both ballot measures pull their strongest support from younger people — with nearly two-thirds of respondents age 18 to 34 supporting the billionaire tax and 61% backing the voter ID measure. Attitudes toward both become less friendly with age; only 35% of people 65 or older support them.
Meanwhile, in the race for California governor, Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra holds a comfortable lead both statewide and in San Diego County, the polls find.
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A former California attorney general who served as U.S. health secretary in President Joe Biden’s Cabinet, Becerra draws the support of 55% of respondents statewide, with his support strongest among older voters, voters of color and low-income voters.
About a third of respondents say they would vote for his Republican rival, British-American Fox News personality Steve Hilton; his strongest support comes from men, high-income voters and those who name immigration as their top issue. Another 12% of respondents say they are undecided.
Locally, Becerra holds a slimmer lead. In San Diego County, 48% of voters support Becerra, compared with 35% who back Hilton and 17% who remain undecided.
But the poll suggests a far more open race in the statewide contest for California’s top schools official, a job two San Diego lawmakers recently rewrote to make less powerful.
In the officially nonpartisan race for state superintendent of public instruction, Richard Barrera — a Democrat, and the president of the school board in San Diego County’s largest school district — has the support of 26% of poll respondents. His Republican opponent, Chino Valley Unified board president Sonja Shaw, has 20%.
But most voters — 53% — remain undecided. And despite Barrera’s local roots, a poll in San Diego County found results similar to those statewide.
Yet the two controversial statewide ballot measures each had an even stronger showing in San Diego County: An identical 54% of local voters say they would vote for the proposed billionaire tax and voter ID requirements. Locally, preferences were slightly less stratified by age — though both measures comfortably lead among people under 50.
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